Many of us have been waiting for months for an ethically-derived and manufactured COVID-19 vaccine.  We have closely followed the news, hoping for information on clinical trials results and updated estimates on when that day might come.

In that time, we’ve seen a number of vaccine candidates drop off the list of the morally uncompromised.  Sanofi Pasteur/GSK, Medicago and Novavax are notable examples of what we hoped would be moral options authorized for use by the FDA.  There are two remaining in trials that have a chance of near-term authorization.

Or do they?  It is with some regret that I’m sharing my views on this.  We have been following the developments as closely as possible and I believe it is time to articulate the possibility that an ethical option may not be available for years.  Both vaccines in trials are not expected to apply for authorization until mid-to-late 4th quarter of this year.  The FDA has signaled that one or more of the currently authorized vaccines are likely to receive full approval within the next month or two.  When that happens, all of the vaccine candidates in clinical trials will find themselves on an approval track vs. an authorization track.  Experience tells us that this will take years, not months.

It would be unreasonable to expect any sort of dispensation, either.  The Federal government has a great many eggs in the Pfizer/Moderna/Johnson & Johnson basket and it would not be a surprise if they choose to protect that basket.

Where does this leave us?  It leaves us without much of a shot, pardon the pun, at an ethical vaccine any time soon.  It may be years.

The choice may soon come down to being pushed or pushing back.